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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.38+1.85vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.08+3.72vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont0.67+1.29vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University0.78+0.02vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire0.35-0.07vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-1.21+2.90vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.39-0.27vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.02-2.26vs Predicted
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9Williams College-1.18-0.08vs Predicted
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10Bates College-2.03+0.69vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.08-0.29vs Predicted
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12Middlebury College-1.45-2.35vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-5.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85University of Vermont1.380.3%1st Place
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5.72University of Vermont0.080.1%1st Place
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4.29University of Vermont0.670.1%1st Place
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4.02Salve Regina University0.780.2%1st Place
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4.93University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
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8.9University of New Hampshire-1.210.0%1st Place
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6.73University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.390.1%1st Place
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5.74Northeastern University0.020.1%1st Place
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8.92Williams College-1.180.0%1st Place
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10.69Bates College-2.030.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.080.0%1st Place
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9.65Middlebury College-1.450.0%1st Place
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7.85Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 30.0% | 21.5% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Begin | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Marco Welch | 12.6% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Schneider | 16.4% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ian Peterson | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Marshall Rodes | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Hal Johnson | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Von Lehe | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 9.0% |
| Georgia Green | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 21.1% | 32.6% |
| Maisey Jobson | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 20.4% | 31.9% |
| Helen Coughlin | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 16.5% | 18.6% | 14.0% |
| Kevin McNeill | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.