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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.38+1.87vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.67+2.27vs Predicted
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3University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.39+4.00vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University0.02+1.84vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.08+0.55vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72+1.66vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University0.78-3.03vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire0.35-3.02vs Predicted
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9University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.08+1.78vs Predicted
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10Williams College-1.18-1.14vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.21-2.23vs Predicted
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12Bates College-2.03-1.20vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-1.45-3.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.87University of Vermont1.380.3%1st Place
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4.27University of Vermont0.670.1%1st Place
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7.0University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.390.0%1st Place
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5.84Northeastern University0.020.1%1st Place
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5.55University of Vermont0.080.1%1st Place
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7.66Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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3.97Salve Regina University0.780.2%1st Place
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4.98University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
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10.78University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.080.0%1st Place
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8.86Williams College-1.180.0%1st Place
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8.77University of New Hampshire-1.210.0%1st Place
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10.8Bates College-2.030.0%1st Place
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9.63Middlebury College-1.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 29.7% | 22.3% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 14.7% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Marshall Rodes | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Hal Johnson | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Begin | 9.4% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Kevin McNeill | 2.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| Jack Schneider | 16.5% | 16.5% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 9.7% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Maisey Jobson | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 23.4% | 34.2% |
| Alex Von Lehe | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 8.3% |
| Ian Peterson | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 16.1% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
| Georgia Green | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 21.2% | 33.8% |
| Helen Coughlin | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.