Race 5A

chris-loder

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Marco Welch 14.3% 13.7% 15.5% 13.8% 12.6% 9.0% 10.0% 5.3% 2.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez 30.3% 22.2% 17.5% 12.3% 8.3% 4.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Schneider 13.6% 17.9% 16.0% 13.0% 13.2% 10.3% 7.4% 4.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Ryan Begin 7.2% 7.8% 9.2% 11.6% 13.4% 10.7% 11.8% 8.8% 8.5% 6.4% 3.3% 0.9% 0.4%
Sam Harris 11.1% 11.4% 11.9% 12.5% 11.2% 11.9% 10.8% 8.2% 5.4% 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
Kevin McNeill 3.6% 3.5% 5.1% 5.4% 7.3% 9.2% 7.3% 12.7% 14.5% 12.2% 10.5% 6.0% 2.7%
Helen Coughlin 1.9% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.8% 4.4% 6.1% 6.9% 9.9% 12.8% 17.0% 18.7% 10.7%
Hal Johnson 8.1% 8.7% 8.0% 8.9% 11.5% 13.4% 11.6% 12.2% 8.4% 5.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.2%
Marshall Rodes 4.7% 5.8% 5.5% 8.5% 7.1% 10.0% 12.2% 11.6% 11.7% 10.6% 7.1% 3.8% 1.4%
Ian Peterson 2.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.9% 5.3% 6.8% 8.9% 11.2% 15.0% 14.8% 13.1% 9.6%
Alex Von Lehe 1.5% 2.3% 3.1% 4.6% 5.1% 6.4% 7.0% 10.4% 12.5% 13.9% 14.4% 12.7% 6.1%
Georgia Green 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.1% 3.1% 3.6% 4.4% 6.7% 7.5% 12.3% 23.0% 33.4%
Maisey Jobson 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.7% 5.0% 5.2% 9.1% 15.3% 20.0% 35.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.