Race 6A

chris-loder

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sam Harris 10.7% 11.0% 11.8% 11.8% 11.0% 13.3% 10.6% 8.1% 6.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Marco Welch 14.0% 14.8% 14.8% 13.4% 13.8% 10.1% 7.5% 6.2% 3.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Jack Schneider 15.3% 15.6% 15.0% 14.5% 14.1% 9.0% 7.0% 5.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Marshall Rodes 3.6% 5.8% 7.3% 8.0% 7.8% 9.0% 12.3% 11.0% 11.8% 11.9% 6.9% 3.3% 1.3%
Maisey Jobson 1.2% 1.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.0% 2.3% 4.8% 6.1% 8.8% 12.1% 21.8% 33.8%
Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez 30.6% 23.2% 17.4% 10.9% 7.1% 5.1% 3.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kevin McNeill 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 7.3% 6.6% 7.0% 8.1% 11.9% 13.1% 13.0% 11.1% 7.5% 1.7%
Ryan Begin 7.3% 8.8% 10.1% 10.1% 10.0% 13.8% 13.3% 11.0% 7.1% 4.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0%
Hal Johnson 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 10.3% 11.9% 11.7% 12.2% 10.6% 8.6% 6.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Georgia Green 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.8% 2.7% 4.5% 6.7% 9.1% 13.8% 21.1% 31.7%
Alex Von Lehe 1.7% 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 6.2% 5.8% 7.6% 8.5% 13.1% 15.5% 14.1% 11.9% 6.7%
Helen Coughlin 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% 3.3% 2.9% 5.0% 5.6% 6.6% 9.7% 13.4% 16.4% 17.6% 14.7%
Ian Peterson 1.8% 2.3% 2.5% 3.3% 4.0% 5.4% 7.4% 9.7% 10.4% 13.4% 16.8% 13.3% 9.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.