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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University0.94+3.48vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology0.13+4.55vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech0.07+3.83vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.08+0.18vs Predicted
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5William and Mary-0.58+3.84vs Predicted
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6Penn State University0.96-1.44vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79-2.27vs Predicted
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8Washington College-0.18-0.48vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.45-3.13vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware-2.02+2.11vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-0.66-1.93vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.07-5.17vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.23-5.22vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-1.33-3.41vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.96-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48Princeton University0.940.2%1st Place
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6.55Rochester Institute of Technology0.130.1%1st Place
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6.83Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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4.18Queen's University1.080.2%1st Place
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8.84William and Mary-0.580.0%1st Place
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4.56Penn State University0.960.1%1st Place
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4.73Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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7.52Washington College-0.180.1%1st Place
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5.87Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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12.11University of Delaware-2.020.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Maryland-0.660.0%1st Place
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6.83Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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7.78SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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10.59Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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11.88Drexel University-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Mraz | 15.7% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nehuel Armenanzas | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| James Fair | 15.7% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Johnson | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 14.1% | 14.0% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Salzberg | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Seton Dill | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 20.7% | 41.2% | 0.0% |
| Eli Leopold | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 18.5% | 21.1% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Pfeffer | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 24.4% | 34.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.