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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.96+3.54vs Predicted
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2Rutgers University-1.33+8.63vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.45+2.97vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.08+0.29vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+0.15vs Predicted
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6Princeton University0.94-1.30vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology0.13-0.34vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.07-1.00vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.07-2.00vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.58-1.01vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.18-3.13vs Predicted
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12University of Maryland-0.53-3.10vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.37-6.81vs Predicted
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14Drexel University-1.96-1.99vs Predicted
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15University of Delaware-2.02-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54Penn State University0.960.2%1st Place
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10.63Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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5.97Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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4.29Queen's University1.080.2%1st Place
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5.15Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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4.7Princeton University0.940.1%1st Place
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6.66Rochester Institute of Technology0.130.1%1st Place
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7.0Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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7.0Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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8.99William and Mary-0.580.0%1st Place
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7.87Washington College-0.180.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Maryland-0.530.0%1st Place
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6.19SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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12.01Drexel University-1.960.0%1st Place
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12.1University of Delaware-2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Lhamon | 15.7% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 19.2% | 19.7% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Fair | 15.2% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 10.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 14.8% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nehuel Armenanzas | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Eric Johnson | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Salzberg | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Pfeffer | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 26.1% | 36.8% | 0.0% |
| Seton Dill | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 11.3% | 25.3% | 38.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.