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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech0.07+5.95vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.08+2.13vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.79+2.03vs Predicted
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4Rutgers University-1.33+6.81vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.37+1.36vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.45+0.08vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.94-2.57vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology0.13-1.14vs Predicted
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9Penn State University0.96-4.35vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland-0.53-1.12vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.58-2.03vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech0.07-5.05vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.18-5.20vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-2.02-1.96vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.96-3.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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4.13Queen's University1.080.2%1st Place
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5.03Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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10.81Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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6.36SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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6.08Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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4.43Princeton University0.940.2%1st Place
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6.86Rochester Institute of Technology0.130.1%1st Place
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4.65Penn State University0.960.1%1st Place
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8.88University of Maryland-0.530.0%1st Place
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8.97William and Mary-0.580.0%1st Place
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6.95Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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7.8Washington College-0.180.0%1st Place
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12.04University of Delaware-2.020.0%1st Place
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12.0Drexel University-1.960.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Lilyquist | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| James Fair | 17.3% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 21.7% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 16.3% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nehuel Armenanzas | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 13.5% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Eric Johnson | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Salzberg | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Seton Dill | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 23.5% | 38.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Pfeffer | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 12.1% | 24.4% | 36.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.