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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University1.08+3.13vs Predicted
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2Columbia University0.45+3.66vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.85+1.76vs Predicted
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4Drexel University-1.96+7.99vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology0.13+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of Maryland-0.53+2.74vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.94-2.66vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.27vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.07-2.01vs Predicted
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10Rutgers University-1.33+0.78vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.07-4.01vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.18-4.29vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.58-4.19vs Predicted
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14Penn State University0.96-9.53vs Predicted
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15University of Delaware-2.02-2.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Queen's University1.080.2%1st Place
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5.66Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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4.76Christopher Newport University0.850.1%1st Place
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11.99Drexel University-1.960.0%1st Place
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6.86Rochester Institute of Technology0.130.1%1st Place
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8.74University of Maryland-0.530.0%1st Place
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4.34Princeton University0.940.2%1st Place
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7.73SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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6.99Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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10.78Rutgers University-1.330.0%1st Place
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6.99Virginia Tech0.070.1%1st Place
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7.71Washington College-0.180.0%1st Place
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8.81William and Mary-0.580.0%1st Place
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4.47Penn State University0.960.1%1st Place
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12.02University of Delaware-2.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Fair | 17.0% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 13.6% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Pfeffer | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 23.5% | 36.8% | 0.0% |
| Nehuel Armenanzas | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Grigg | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Logan Mraz | 16.6% | 14.2% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Martin | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 17.3% | 19.9% | 16.2% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Salzberg | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Eric Johnson | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 14.8% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seton Dill | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 24.4% | 37.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.