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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Penn State University0.54+3.71vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.08+1.46vs Predicted
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3Queen's University1.57-0.32vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.63+0.54vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech-0.81+3.25vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech-0.81+2.25vs Predicted
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7William and Mary-0.40+0.27vs Predicted
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8University of Maryland-0.82-0.06vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-2.19vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.92-1.49vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.06-4.69vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.87-3.55vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-2.23-1.54vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-2.96-1.48vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-2.66-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.71Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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3.46Christopher Newport University1.080.2%1st Place
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2.68Queen's University1.570.3%1st Place
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4.54Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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8.25Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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8.25Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.27William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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7.94University of Maryland-0.820.0%1st Place
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6.81Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.1%1st Place
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8.51Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.31SUNY Maritime College-0.060.1%1st Place
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8.45Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
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11.46Rutgers University-2.230.0%1st Place
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12.52University of Delaware-2.960.0%1st Place
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12.08Drexel University-2.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Murphy | 11.1% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 19.3% | 20.4% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Thompson | 32.3% | 23.1% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 10.9% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hoppe | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cole Bender | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Latimer | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Bennett | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 24.4% | 23.4% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| Brian Polak | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 11.4% | 23.9% | 46.5% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weiss | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 30.8% | 30.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.