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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University1.57+1.43vs Predicted
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2Penn State University0.54+2.25vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.40+3.47vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech-0.81+3.49vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.08-1.83vs Predicted
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6Princeton University-0.92+1.62vs Predicted
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7University of Maryland-0.82+0.36vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.51vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.81-1.51vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.87-2.37vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-2.28-0.37vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University-2.23-1.56vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-2.96-1.25vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.30-7.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.43Queen's University1.570.4%1st Place
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4.25Penn State University0.540.1%1st Place
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6.47William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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7.49Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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3.17Christopher Newport University1.080.2%1st Place
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7.62Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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7.36University of Maryland-0.820.0%1st Place
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5.49SUNY Maritime College-0.060.1%1st Place
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7.49Virginia Tech-0.810.0%1st Place
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7.63Washington College-0.870.0%1st Place
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10.63Drexel University-2.280.0%1st Place
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10.44Rutgers University-2.230.0%1st Place
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11.75University of Delaware-2.960.0%1st Place
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6.28Rochester Institute of Technology-0.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Thompson | 35.9% | 24.6% | 18.0% | 10.4% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Murphy | 12.2% | 14.9% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 4.4% | 4.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 22.0% | 21.9% | 19.1% | 14.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hoppe | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ray McDonald | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Latimer | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Walerys | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 17.7% | 27.6% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| Cooper Bennett | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 19.0% | 26.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| Brian Polak | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 53.7% | 0.0% |
| Cole Bender | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.