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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.80+3.25vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.74+2.48vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44+2.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+0.97vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.30+0.69vs Predicted
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6Clemson University-0.82+5.67vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University0.78+0.24vs Predicted
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8The Citadel0.34+0.43vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island0.54-1.16vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.00vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University-0.77-0.56vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida-0.19-2.93vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.29-8.34vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.20-6.20vs Predicted
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16University of Saint Thomas-3.89-0.50vs Predicted
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17Princeton University-2.78-2.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.25Brown University1.800.2%1st Place
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4.48Tufts University1.740.2%1st Place
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5.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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4.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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5.69Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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11.67Clemson University-0.820.0%1st Place
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7.24Northeastern University0.780.1%1st Place
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8.43The Citadel0.340.0%1st Place
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7.84University of Rhode Island0.540.0%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.44Salve Regina University-0.770.0%1st Place
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10.07University of South Florida-0.190.0%1st Place
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5.66Roger Williams University1.290.1%1st Place
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8.8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.200.0%1st Place
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15.5University of Saint Thomas-3.890.0%1st Place
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14.7Princeton University-2.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Gish | 16.8% | 16.7% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Keeves | 16.4% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karya Basaraner | 11.5% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 9.7% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Avery | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 27.2% | 8.1% | 0.7% |
| Carter Anderson | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emaline Ouellette | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Emilia Perriera | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 26.0% | 9.0% | 0.5% |
| Garrett Floerchinger | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Fuja | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Tofolo | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lily Lupardus | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 18.0% | 75.7% |
| John Morgan Griffith | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 58.0% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.