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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+3.52vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.03+2.16vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+0.26vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.01+0.32vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.84-0.17vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.20+0.36vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.11-0.42vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.07+1.27vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy1.22-0.12vs Predicted
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10American University-0.20+2.10vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.68-0.74vs Predicted
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13William and Mary1.37-4.37vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.15-4.78vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.48-1.14vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.46-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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4.16Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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3.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.32University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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4.83Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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6.36Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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6.58Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.1American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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8.63William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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9.22Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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13.86Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
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13.76St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Hause III | 14.4% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 14.1% | 18.2% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 23.6% | 20.0% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 15.1% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 11.5% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 28.8% | 23.1% | 7.4% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 1.5% |
| Bill Parker | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Mary Buhl | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Young | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 11.5% | 30.2% | 46.0% |
| Branham Talton | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 10.2% | 32.2% | 44.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.