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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.76vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+6.04vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.10+4.80vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.59+5.62vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.53vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53-0.07vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.94+1.27vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.13+3.58vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.10-1.48vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+0.97vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.09+0.95vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.44-1.19vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.33vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-1.87vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.17-3.51vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.32-5.03vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy2.99-8.79vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.77-9.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.04Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.8College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.62Dartmouth College2.590.0%1st Place
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10.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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5.93Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.27Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.58University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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7.52Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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11.95Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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10.81Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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10.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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12.13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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11.49Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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10.97Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.21U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.75Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 11.9% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Chase Decker | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 11.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 13.3% |
| Peter Busch | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 16.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.