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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+7.27vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+3.62vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.94+5.49vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.77+4.87vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.17+6.42vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.09+5.86vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32+3.87vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.59+1.68vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.13+2.71vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.53-3.84vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.00vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.10-4.01vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-0.74vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.10-6.63vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.44-4.63vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.36vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.05-9.08vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-7.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.27U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.49Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.87Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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11.42Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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11.86Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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10.87Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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9.68Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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11.71University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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6.16Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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11.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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7.99Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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7.37College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.37Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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10.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.92Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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10.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.7% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 13.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 6.0% |
| Chase Decker | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 16.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Peter Busch | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.