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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+6.84vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+3.62vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.05+5.01vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.94+4.23vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.53+0.91vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.13+5.70vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.17+4.52vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+2.52vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.10-1.53vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.73vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.09+1.00vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.77-2.68vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.33vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-3.63vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-2.53vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.59-6.16vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.44-6.45vs Predicted
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18Cornell University2.32-7.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.84Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.01Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.23Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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5.91Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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11.7University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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11.52Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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10.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.47College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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8.27U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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12.0Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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9.32Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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10.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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12.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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9.84Dartmouth College2.590.0%1st Place
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10.55Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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10.7Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 11.7% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 14.2% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 17.5% |
| Chase Decker | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Peter Busch | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.