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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.53+4.95vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+5.54vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+7.62vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.59+5.33vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.75vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.64-0.62vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.05+0.55vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.77+0.60vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.43+4.90vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+3.53vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.13+0.44vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.09-0.11vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.94-5.11vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-3.90vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.81vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.10-8.59vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University2.17-5.71vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.25-7.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.54Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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9.33Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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7.75U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.38Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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7.55Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.6Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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13.9Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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13.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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11.44University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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11.89Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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7.89Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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10.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.41College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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11.29Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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10.66Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% |
| Chase Decker | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.3% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Ava Gustafson | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 26.7% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 15.8% | 22.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.6% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.9% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.9% |
| Jack Redmond | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.