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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.65vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.53+3.98vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.05+4.88vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University2.17+7.24vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.13+6.38vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.10+1.47vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82+1.62vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+2.44vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.94-0.91vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.09+1.86vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.59-1.23vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.77-2.82vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.72vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.43-0.25vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-7.16vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University3.10-8.48vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-3.39vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-7.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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5.98Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.88Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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11.24Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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11.38University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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7.47College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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8.62Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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8.09Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.86Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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9.77Dartmouth College2.590.0%1st Place
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9.18Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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13.75Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.52Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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13.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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10.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 12.4% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.0% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 4.1% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.2% |
| Chase Decker | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.9% |
| Ava Gustafson | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 27.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.1% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 16.2% | 23.3% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.