← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.05+6.93vs Predicted
-
2Roger Williams University3.10+5.63vs Predicted
-
3College of Charleston3.10+4.66vs Predicted
-
4Yale University2.77+4.75vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University3.53+0.85vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+7.50vs Predicted
-
7Tulane University2.94+1.16vs Predicted
-
8Harvard University3.64-2.67vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.20vs Predicted
-
10University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.75vs Predicted
-
11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.49vs Predicted
-
12Boston College2.82-3.06vs Predicted
-
13Bowdoin College2.09-1.55vs Predicted
-
14Dartmouth College2.59-4.74vs Predicted
-
15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-4.38vs Predicted
-
16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-5.43vs Predicted
-
17Jacksonville University2.17-5.57vs Predicted
-
18Cornell University1.43-4.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.93Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
-
7.63Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
7.66College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
-
8.75Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
-
5.85Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
-
13.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
-
8.16Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
-
5.33Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
-
7.8U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
11.75University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
-
10.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
8.94Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
-
11.45Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
-
9.26Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
-
10.62St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
-
10.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
-
11.43Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
-
13.86Cornell University1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Behrens | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 22.4% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 14.5% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Chase Decker | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| Ava Gustafson | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 27.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.