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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.96vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.53+3.43vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.94+3.67vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.10+2.08vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+3.73vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.34+6.66vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+4.65vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+0.76vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.05-2.61vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.69vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.13-1.06vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.59-4.01vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.09vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.10-7.92vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.32-5.96vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University2.17-6.27vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.44-8.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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5.43Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.67Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.08College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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13.66Bowdoin College1.340.0%1st Place
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12.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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9.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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7.39Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.94University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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8.99Dartmouth College2.590.0%1st Place
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9.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.08Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.04Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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10.73Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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9.65Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 16.2% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Robert Ulmer | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% |
| Ryan Keenan | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 16.2% | 33.3% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 20.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| Chase Decker | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 6.9% |
| Peter Busch | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.