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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+4.01vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+4.93vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.53+2.50vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.75vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.22vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.94+0.81vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.59+1.00vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+0.80vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.10-2.84vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+1.65vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-1.98vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.05-5.79vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.17-3.23vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.05vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.44-6.41vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.32-6.88vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College1.34-4.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.01Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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6.93Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.5Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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9.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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7.22U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.81Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.0Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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9.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.0%1st Place
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7.16College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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12.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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10.02Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.0%1st Place
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7.21Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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10.77Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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10.95University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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9.59Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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10.12Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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13.52Bowdoin College1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.5% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.9% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Hamilton Barclay | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Chase Decker | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 14.7% | 20.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Blake Behrens | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 8.0% |
| Peter Busch | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% |
| Ryan Keenan | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 33.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.