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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.01+3.28vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+1.22vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+1.55vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+0.68vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy1.22+3.83vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.03-1.74vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.20-0.72vs Predicted
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8William and Mary1.27+0.79vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland0.68+1.21vs Predicted
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10Hampton University2.11-3.34vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.07-2.76vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.15-3.77vs Predicted
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14American University-0.20-1.87vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.48-1.14vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.46-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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3.22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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4.68Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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8.83U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.26Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.28Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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8.79William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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10.21University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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6.66Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.24Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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9.23Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.13American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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13.86Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
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13.76St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Stessing | 14.4% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 24.5% | 20.5% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 13.5% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 12.8% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Collin Leon | 13.0% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 15.2% | 18.2% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 30.0% | 22.7% | 8.0% |
| Andrew Young | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 11.7% | 29.9% | 46.1% |
| Branham Talton | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 11.8% | 30.4% | 44.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.