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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+3.56vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+1.25vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+3.21vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.03+0.25vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy1.22+3.85vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia3.01-1.68vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.84-2.31vs Predicted
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8William and Mary1.27+0.77vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.07+0.27vs Predicted
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10Hampton University2.11-3.35vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.68-0.77vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.15-3.78vs Predicted
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14American University-0.20-1.88vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-1.46-1.18vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-1.48-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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3.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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6.21Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.25Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.85U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.32University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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4.69Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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8.77William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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6.65Hampton University2.110.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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9.22Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.12American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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13.82St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
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13.77Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Hause III | 13.6% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 23.9% | 21.1% | 17.0% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 7.4% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 14.7% | 17.2% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 7.2% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Stessing | 13.2% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 12.7% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 17.2% | 14.6% | 7.7% | 1.3% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 30.4% | 22.1% | 8.2% |
| Branham Talton | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 11.8% | 31.0% | 44.5% |
| Andrew Young | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 11.7% | 29.4% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.