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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.01+5.49vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.75+5.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+1.99vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.44+1.25vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.59+2.87vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.43-0.58vs Predicted
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7Florida State University2.12-0.79vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College1.62-0.16vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.77-1.36vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.19+1.87vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.53-0.11vs Predicted
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13University of Miami0.43-0.87vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-1.99vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.11-5.04vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.51-7.60vs Predicted
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17George Washington University-0.62-2.07vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.61-6.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.49Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.52University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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4.99University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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5.25Georgetown University2.440.1%1st Place
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7.87Connecticut College1.590.1%1st Place
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5.42Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.21Florida State University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.84Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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7.64Webb Institute1.770.1%1st Place
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12.87University of Vermont0.190.0%1st Place
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11.89University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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12.13University of Miami0.430.0%1st Place
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12.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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8.4University of South Florida1.510.1%1st Place
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14.93George Washington University-0.620.0%1st Place
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11.57Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Thress | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Max Sigel | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Henry Boeger | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 14.4% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Skylor Sweet | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 12.0% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Schmid | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| William Denker | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 17.4% | 14.6% |
| Jack Homa | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 8.6% |
| David Webb | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 9.9% |
| Langdon Wallace | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
| Abe Weston | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Frank Wildi | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 47.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.