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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.79+3.22vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+5.70vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College1.64+5.20vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.68+3.71vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan1.53+3.37vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.75+1.59vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.39+1.99vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.27+1.41vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.54-0.67vs Predicted
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10Florida State University0.42+3.04vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.74-3.29vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.13-1.66vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.56-4.93vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College1.23-4.67vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.08-4.85vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-3.31vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.04-2.59vs Predicted
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18-0.26-3.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.22Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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7.7University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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8.2Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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7.71University of Miami1.680.1%1st Place
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8.37University of Michigan1.530.1%1st Place
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7.59University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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8.99George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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9.41Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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8.33Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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13.04Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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7.71Tufts University1.740.1%1st Place
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10.34University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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8.07University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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9.33Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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10.15Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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12.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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14.41Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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14.75-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Herlihy | 18.9% | 19.3% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| William Stratton | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 14.3% |
| Oliver Keeves | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Cooper Smith | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Efe Guder | 7.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| William Hurd | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 11.7% |
| Ivet Bejar | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 18.0% | 29.1% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 19.3% | 31.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.