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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.79+3.21vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.53+6.73vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.74+4.80vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.68+3.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+2.44vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.75+1.56vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.54+1.32vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.13+1.93vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.39-0.10vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.64-1.79vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.56-2.57vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.23-2.02vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.27-3.70vs Predicted
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14Florida State University0.42-1.48vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-2.47vs Predicted
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16Hampton University-0.04-1.59vs Predicted
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17-0.26-1.99vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.08-7.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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8.73University of Michigan1.530.0%1st Place
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7.8Tufts University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.71University of Miami1.680.1%1st Place
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7.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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7.56University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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8.32Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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9.93University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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8.9George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.21Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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8.43University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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9.98Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.3Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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12.52Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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12.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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14.41Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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15.01-0.260.0%1st Place
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10.01Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Herlihy | 19.1% | 17.9% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Keeves | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| William Stratton | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 7.1% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Vieira | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Efe Guder | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| William Hurd | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.9% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 10.4% |
| Ivet Bejar | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 17.3% | 28.2% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 36.6% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.