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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+6.69vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.79+2.14vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.56+5.50vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.74+3.47vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.13+4.90vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.27+3.50vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.23+2.61vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.53+0.39vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.64-1.09vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.54-1.37vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.75-3.33vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.08-1.42vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.39-4.19vs Predicted
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14-0.26+0.66vs Predicted
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15University of Miami1.68-7.24vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.42-3.11vs Predicted
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17Hampton University-0.04-2.55vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-5.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.69University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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4.14Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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8.5University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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7.47Tufts University1.740.1%1st Place
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9.9University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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9.5Fordham University1.270.1%1st Place
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9.61Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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8.39University of Michigan1.530.1%1st Place
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7.91Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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8.63Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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7.67University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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10.58Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.81George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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14.66-0.260.0%1st Place
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7.76University of Miami1.680.1%1st Place
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12.89Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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14.45Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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12.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Peter Herlihy | 17.3% | 17.9% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efe Guder | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Keeves | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| William Hurd | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.8% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 18.3% | 32.6% |
| William Stratton | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 13.5% |
| Ivet Bejar | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 18.9% | 29.2% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.