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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.79+3.27vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.23+7.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+4.74vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.13+6.01vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.75+2.55vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.64+2.05vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.39+2.00vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.32+1.25vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.54-0.61vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+2.84vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.56-2.50vs Predicted
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12-0.26+3.15vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.27-3.60vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.68-6.36vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.53-6.56vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.74-8.27vs Predicted
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17Florida State University0.42-4.06vs Predicted
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18Hampton University-0.04-3.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.27Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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9.96Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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7.74University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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10.01University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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7.55University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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8.05Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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9.0George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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9.25Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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8.39Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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12.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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8.5University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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15.15-0.260.0%1st Place
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9.4Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Miami1.680.1%1st Place
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8.44University of Michigan1.530.1%1st Place
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7.73Tufts University1.740.1%1st Place
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12.94Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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14.12Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Herlihy | 19.2% | 18.2% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Pierce Brindley | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 11.7% |
| Efe Guder | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 14.6% | 40.9% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| William Stratton | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Oliver Keeves | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 17.5% | 11.4% |
| Ivet Bejar | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 16.9% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.