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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont1.13+9.29vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.68+6.11vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.79+1.11vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.75+3.46vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.32+4.25vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.74+1.67vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+0.52vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.53+0.39vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.39-0.01vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.54-1.22vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.27-1.32vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.42+1.16vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.04+1.18vs Predicted
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14-0.26+0.64vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.64-7.02vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.56-7.60vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-4.18vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.23-8.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.29University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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8.11University of Miami1.680.1%1st Place
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4.11Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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7.46University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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9.25Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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7.67Tufts University1.740.1%1st Place
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7.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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8.39University of Michigan1.530.1%1st Place
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8.99George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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8.78Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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9.68Fordham University1.270.1%1st Place
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13.16Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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14.18Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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14.64-0.260.0%1st Place
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7.98Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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8.4University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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12.82U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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9.57Connecticut College1.230.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Smith | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| William Stratton | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Peter Herlihy | 18.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Pierce Brindley | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Oliver Keeves | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| Ivet Bejar | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 18.9% | 25.9% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 33.9% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Efe Guder | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Calvin Marsh | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 10.8% |
| William Hurd | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.