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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.79+3.36vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.32+7.58vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.21+3.07vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.56+4.24vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+2.52vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.13+4.12vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.54+1.44vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.23+1.69vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.97+1.76vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.39-0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.68-2.98vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.75-4.07vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.04+1.15vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.64-6.20vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-2.43vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.53-7.38vs Predicted
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17Florida State University0.42-4.01vs Predicted
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18-0.26-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36Georgetown University2.790.2%1st Place
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9.58Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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6.07Tufts University2.210.1%1st Place
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8.24University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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7.52University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Vermont1.130.0%1st Place
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8.44Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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9.69Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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10.76Fordham University0.970.0%1st Place
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9.37George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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8.02University of Miami1.680.1%1st Place
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7.93University of Rhode Island1.750.1%1st Place
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14.15Hampton University-0.040.0%1st Place
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7.8Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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12.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.480.0%1st Place
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8.62University of Michigan1.530.1%1st Place
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12.99Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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14.78-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Herlihy | 17.8% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| Pearse Dowd | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Efe Guder | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 7.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Cooper Smith | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| William Hurd | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Erickson Rankin | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 6.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| William Stratton | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Keith Grupenhoff | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Ivet Bejar | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 27.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Calvin Marsh | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% |
| Lorenzo Puertas | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 13.0% |
| Nigel Yu | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 19.1% | 32.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.