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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.01+3.32vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+2.49vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.03+1.21vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-0.70vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.20+1.40vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84-1.30vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.82vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.07+1.27vs Predicted
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9William and Mary1.27-0.25vs Predicted
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10Hampton University2.11-3.39vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland0.68-0.80vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.15-2.79vs Predicted
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13American University-0.20-0.87vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.48-1.15vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.46-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.32University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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4.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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4.21Old Dominion University3.030.2%1st Place
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3.3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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6.4Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.7Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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8.82U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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8.75William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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6.61Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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10.2University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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9.21Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.13American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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13.85Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
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13.75St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Stessing | 14.5% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 11.3% | 16.6% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 15.8% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 24.8% | 18.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 11.7% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Winter | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 15.7% | 17.4% | 14.3% | 8.1% | 1.3% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 16.2% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 30.7% | 22.8% | 8.0% |
| Andrew Young | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 30.6% | 45.7% |
| Branham Talton | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 12.5% | 30.1% | 43.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.