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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+3.60vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.03+2.17vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+0.29vs Predicted
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4U. S. Military Academy1.22+4.86vs Predicted
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5William and Mary1.27+3.75vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84-1.25vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.01-2.72vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.20-1.70vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.11-2.49vs Predicted
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10University of Maryland0.68+0.26vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.07-1.74vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.15-2.75vs Predicted
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14American University-0.20-1.90vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-1.46-1.16vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-1.48-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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4.17Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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3.29St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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8.75William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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4.75Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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4.28University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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6.3Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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6.51Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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10.26University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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9.26Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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9.25Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.1American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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13.84St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
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13.77Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Hause III | 14.3% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 14.3% | 17.7% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 23.3% | 19.6% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 11.5% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 14.2% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 20.1% | 15.8% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| Matthew Winter | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 15.2% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 29.7% | 22.6% | 8.1% |
| Branham Talton | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 31.5% | 44.5% |
| Andrew Young | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 11.5% | 30.0% | 44.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.