← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.46vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.48+0.82vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Berkeley0.20+2.00vs Predicted
-
4Northwestern University-1.76+4.53vs Predicted
-
5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40-2.08vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Davis-1.89+2.60vs Predicted
-
7University of California at San Diego-0.71-0.61vs Predicted
-
8Western Washington University-0.13-2.61vs Predicted
-
9Santa Clara University-1.98-0.28vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles-2.72-0.31vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University-0.19-5.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.46California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
-
2.82University of Southern California1.480.2%1st Place
-
5.0University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
-
8.53Northwestern University-1.760.0%1st Place
-
2.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.2%1st Place
-
8.6University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
-
6.39University of California at San Diego-0.710.0%1st Place
-
5.39Western Washington University-0.130.1%1st Place
-
8.72Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
-
9.69University of California at Los Angeles-2.720.0%1st Place
-
5.47San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 30.1% | 26.8% | 22.2% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 23.4% | 25.2% | 21.3% | 14.7% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 17.2% | 17.4% | 18.8% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Luke Sadalla | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 23.5% | 21.8% | 15.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 23.9% | 22.7% | 19.6% | 16.2% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 21.0% | 24.4% | 15.8% |
| Skyler Chaffey | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 21.5% | 16.2% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 5.3% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 17.3% | 18.4% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 19.1% | 26.5% | 18.9% |
| Kevin Lu | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 19.2% | 48.5% |
| Owen Gormely | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 11.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.