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📊 Prediction Accuracy
90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.48+1.82vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+0.41vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40-0.01vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University-0.13+1.65vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.20-0.14vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-1.89+2.65vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.19-1.56vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.71-1.58vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-1.98-0.23vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University-1.76-1.71vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-2.72-1.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.82University of Southern California1.480.2%1st Place
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2.41California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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2.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.2%1st Place
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5.65Western Washington University-0.130.0%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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5.44San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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6.42University of California at San Diego-0.710.0%1st Place
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8.77Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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8.29Northwestern University-1.760.0%1st Place
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9.7University of California at Los Angeles-2.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Mayfield | 23.4% | 25.1% | 20.8% | 15.1% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 33.1% | 26.7% | 18.9% | 12.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Headington | 21.2% | 20.4% | 24.3% | 17.0% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 16.6% | 20.0% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Wilton Lawton | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 16.8% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 24.5% | 17.7% |
| Owen Gormely | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 18.1% | 15.7% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Skyler Chaffey | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 15.8% | 19.2% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 20.4% | 23.4% | 21.6% |
| Luke Sadalla | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 17.2% | 19.5% | 23.3% | 11.4% |
| Kevin Lu | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 19.8% | 47.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.