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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.56vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.48+0.95vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.20+2.34vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.06+1.62vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40-1.92vs Predicted
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6Santa Clara University-1.98+3.07vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.19-1.17vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-2.72+1.91vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-1.89-0.04vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University-0.13-4.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.71-4.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.56California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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2.95University of Southern California1.480.2%1st Place
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5.34University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.0%1st Place
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3.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.2%1st Place
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9.07Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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5.83San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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9.91University of California at Los Angeles-2.720.0%1st Place
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8.96University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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5.8Western Washington University-0.130.1%1st Place
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6.86University of California at San Diego-0.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 29.2% | 25.9% | 21.2% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 22.3% | 24.2% | 19.7% | 15.6% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 6.0% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.2% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Isaac Sharp | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Morgan Headington | 23.0% | 20.3% | 18.7% | 16.9% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 22.3% | 29.2% | 23.9% |
| Owen Gormely | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 15.6% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Kevin Lu | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 24.7% | 50.3% |
| Luke Melvin | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 21.6% | 27.8% | 22.6% |
| Ellie Blakemore | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 15.3% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Skyler Chaffey | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 21.3% | 14.4% | 9.0% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.