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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.26vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89+2.46vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.20+3.24vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia3.01+0.33vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University3.03-0.65vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84-1.29vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.07+2.20vs Predicted
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8Hampton University2.11-1.46vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland0.68+1.19vs Predicted
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10William and Mary1.27-1.20vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.15-1.94vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy1.22-2.89vs Predicted
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14American University-0.20-1.86vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.48-1.15vs Predicted
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16St. John's College-1.46-2.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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6.24Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.33University of Virginia3.010.2%1st Place
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4.35Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.71Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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9.2Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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6.54Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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10.19University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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8.8William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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9.06Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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12.14American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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13.85Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
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13.76St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 24.6% | 20.9% | 16.0% | 12.9% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 11.3% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 15.4% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 14.4% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 10.9% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 19.2% | 14.7% | 6.5% | 0.6% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 14.1% | 28.9% | 23.4% | 8.0% |
| Andrew Young | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 12.3% | 29.3% | 46.0% |
| Branham Talton | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 12.2% | 30.5% | 44.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.