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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.55+2.91vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California-2.64+8.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley-2.18+6.01vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy-0.61+0.14vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay-2.05+3.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-1.70+1.46vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-2.11+1.78vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-1.53-1.14vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.43vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.33-3.72vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.87-3.94vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.82-4.92vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.98-5.34vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-3.02-3.38vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.04-4.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.91University of California at Santa Cruz-0.550.2%1st Place
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10.33University of Southern California-2.640.0%1st Place
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9.01University of California at Berkeley-2.180.0%1st Place
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4.14California Poly Maritime Academy-0.610.2%1st Place
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8.63California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Irvine-1.700.1%1st Place
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8.78University of California at Davis-2.110.1%1st Place
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6.86University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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6.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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6.28University of California at Los Angeles-1.330.1%1st Place
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8.06San Diego State University-1.870.0%1st Place
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8.08University of California at San Diego-1.820.0%1st Place
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8.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.980.0%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Irvine-3.020.0%1st Place
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11.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-3.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie McEachen | 19.4% | 19.9% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Colin Cann | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 14.0% |
| Dante Drolet | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Cameron Furin | 19.5% | 16.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 3.7% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Tony Gao | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% |
| Brayden Money | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Sam Yu | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Barraza | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| JP Finnegan | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Samantha Katz | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% |
| Michael Jacobson | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 17.6% | 27.6% |
| Tyler Stump | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 29.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.