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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+5.22vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.03+2.19vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.84+1.66vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-0.66vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.89-0.28vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.11+0.61vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.07+2.19vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.91vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01-4.69vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.15-0.85vs Predicted
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11American University-0.20+1.00vs Predicted
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13William and Mary1.37-4.29vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland0.68-3.64vs Predicted
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15St. John's College-1.46-1.15vs Predicted
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16Drexel University-1.48-2.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.19Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.66Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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3.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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4.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.890.1%1st Place
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6.61Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University1.070.0%1st Place
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8.91U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.31University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
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9.15Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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12.0American University-0.200.0%1st Place
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8.71William and Mary1.370.0%1st Place
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10.36University of Maryland0.680.0%1st Place
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13.85St. John's College-1.460.0%1st Place
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13.78Drexel University-1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Andril | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 14.1% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 11.9% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 24.3% | 19.0% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Don Hause III | 13.2% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Winter | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 12.9% | 13.8% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Allison Blauvelt | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 27.5% | 23.0% | 7.2% |
| Bill Parker | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 11.9% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Rybczynski | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 20.3% | 17.6% | 6.4% | 1.3% |
| Branham Talton | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 32.3% | 44.7% |
| Andrew Young | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 11.7% | 29.1% | 45.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.