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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.68+6.26vs Predicted
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2Stanford University1.92+4.42vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.01+3.08vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.36+0.79vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.73+1.91vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.16+6.78vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.15-1.50vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.57+3.21vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.99+0.65vs Predicted
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10Tulane University1.06-0.38vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.14+1.93vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.23+0.85vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.31-8.04vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.64-3.28vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.62-3.96vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.53-4.46vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University0.12-3.98vs Predicted
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18Fordham University-0.18-4.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.26College of Charleston1.680.1%1st Place
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6.42Stanford University1.920.1%1st Place
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6.08Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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4.79Yale University2.360.2%1st Place
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6.91Tufts University1.730.1%1st Place
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12.78U. S. Naval Academy0.160.0%1st Place
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5.5Harvard University2.150.1%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.570.0%1st Place
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9.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.990.0%1st Place
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9.62Tulane University1.060.0%1st Place
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12.93University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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12.85George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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4.96Dartmouth College2.310.1%1st Place
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10.72Connecticut College0.640.0%1st Place
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11.04St. Mary's College of Maryland0.620.0%1st Place
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11.54University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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13.02Northeastern University0.120.0%1st Place
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13.72Fordham University-0.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Alfortish | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Callie Hammond | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Katherine McNamara | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elle Sykes | 16.1% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Hubbard | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kate Zurinskas | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 13.7% |
| Kate Danielson | 11.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Demand | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% |
| Emma Wang | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Lola Kohl | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 13.4% |
| Hayden Clary | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 13.7% |
| Olivia Drulard | 14.5% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Scipione | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| Maisy Sperry | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Ella Towner | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% |
| Sylvia Burns | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 14.3% |
| Isabela Hillmann | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 15.3% | 20.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.