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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.77+5.71vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+3.57vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+7.89vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.09+4.82vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.50+5.88vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+1.98vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.60+3.69vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.77+1.97vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.64-5.12vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.22+2.10vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.10-2.02vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.43-3.97vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.59-6.03vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.05-8.54vs Predicted
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15Maine Maritime Academy0.27-0.40vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.67-9.05vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University-0.20-1.40vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire-1.21-1.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.71Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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5.57Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.0%1st Place
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8.82Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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10.88Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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7.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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10.69Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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9.97Northeastern University1.770.0%1st Place
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3.88Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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12.1University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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8.98University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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8.03Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.97Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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5.46Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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14.6Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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6.95Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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15.6Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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16.93University of New Hampshire-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Gavin Hudson | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Justin Callahan | 21.1% | 17.9% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 7.6% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Finn Deprez | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 22.7% | 25.5% | 9.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Morrison | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 15.4% | 35.1% | 22.3% |
| Ian Peterson | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 64.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.