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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+4.63vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+2.03vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+4.91vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.05+1.54vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.70+5.21vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+3.53vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.67-0.17vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.77-1.54vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.59-1.92vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University-0.20+5.65vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.22+0.99vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.50-0.74vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-5.16vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.27+0.37vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-4.40vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.77-5.85vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.09-7.99vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire-1.21-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.63Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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4.03Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.91Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.54Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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10.21University of Rhode Island1.700.0%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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6.83Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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6.46Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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7.08Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
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15.65Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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11.26Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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7.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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14.37Maine Maritime Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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10.6Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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10.15Northeastern University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.01Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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16.91University of New Hampshire-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.6% | 18.2% | 16.8% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Blake Behrens | 12.5% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Severson | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Peter Joslin | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Decker | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sean Morrison | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 15.7% | 36.0% | 22.4% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 15.0% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 0.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Finn Deprez | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 21.5% | 23.9% | 8.6% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Hudson | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Peterson | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 17.1% | 65.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.