← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University2.32+2.39vs Predicted
-
2George Washington University1.22+4.04vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania1.41+2.60vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+2.35vs Predicted
-
5William and Mary-0.40+5.97vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University0.81+1.46vs Predicted
-
7Georgetown University2.37-3.66vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-0.97vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17-2.65vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University0.10-0.30vs Predicted
-
11University of Virginia-0.55+0.46vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.72vs Predicted
-
13Washington College-0.80-0.84vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University0.45-5.43vs Predicted
-
15Princeton University-0.92-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.39Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
-
6.04George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
-
5.6University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
-
6.35U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
-
10.97William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
-
7.46Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
-
3.34Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
-
7.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
-
6.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
-
9.7Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
-
11.46University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
-
9.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
-
12.16Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
-
8.57Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
-
12.3Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 24.5% | 19.3% | 16.5% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.7% | 21.4% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Sabrina Starck | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 2.2% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 21.2% | 26.1% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 18.8% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.