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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+5.32vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.32vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.37+0.33vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.10+5.59vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.03vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.41-0.31vs Predicted
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7William and Mary-0.40+3.96vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.45+0.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.19-2.76vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.92+2.34vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.89vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.81-4.41vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.22-6.54vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.80-1.92vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.55-3.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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3.32Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.33Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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9.59Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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5.69University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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10.96William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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8.54Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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6.24U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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12.34Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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7.59Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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6.46George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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12.08Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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11.4University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Starck | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 25.0% | 21.1% | 15.7% | 12.5% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 21.7% | 21.7% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
| Lina Carper | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 14.8% | 15.1% | 13.7% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Ava Farley | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 21.3% | 30.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.4% | 3.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 19.4% | 25.8% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 17.3% | 18.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.