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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.40vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.24vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+2.40vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.10+4.63vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.41-0.30vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.81+0.36vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.40+3.06vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.07vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.55+1.49vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.45-2.38vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.22-5.59vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.71vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.71vs Predicted
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15Washington College-0.80-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.23Georgetown University2.370.3%1st Place
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6.24U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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5.7University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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7.36Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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11.06William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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6.93St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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11.49University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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8.62Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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6.41George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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9.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.95Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 23.7% | 20.6% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 26.2% | 21.4% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sabrina Starck | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 4.4% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 17.8% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| Lina Carper | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 19.8% | 30.3% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 19.6% | 25.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.