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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.31vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.34vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.41+2.60vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.98vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+1.46vs Predicted
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6William and Mary-0.40+5.02vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.65vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.10+1.63vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.22-2.86vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia-0.55+1.45vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.81-3.46vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.77vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.80-0.83vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.45-5.49vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.92-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.31Georgetown University2.370.3%1st Place
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3.34Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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5.6University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.98St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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6.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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11.02William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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6.35U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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6.14George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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11.45University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.54Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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12.17Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.51Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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12.27Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 25.1% | 20.7% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 23.6% | 21.9% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.9% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Sabrina Starck | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 17.3% | 12.0% |
| Ava Farley | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 5.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 18.6% | 28.3% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 19.4% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.