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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.31vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.30vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.22+3.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+5.04vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.10+4.66vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+0.39vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.42vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-0.95vs Predicted
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9William and Mary-0.40+2.01vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.45-1.36vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.80+1.02vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.19-5.52vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.81-5.33vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.55-2.56vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.92-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.31Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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3.3Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.16George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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9.66Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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5.58University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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7.05St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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11.01William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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8.64Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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12.02Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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6.48U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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7.67Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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11.44University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.25Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 24.7% | 19.5% | 17.5% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 24.9% | 20.7% | 15.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 5.7% |
| Sabrina Starck | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 17.4% | 27.4% |
| Ava Farley | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 18.8% | 17.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 20.5% | 30.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.