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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.32vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.29vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.41+2.63vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+2.39vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.45+3.60vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.22+0.24vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.72vs Predicted
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8Washington College-0.80+4.05vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.81-1.62vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.83vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.10-1.37vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-4.86vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia-0.55-1.41vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.71vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.40-3.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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3.29Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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5.63University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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8.6Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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6.24George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.28U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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12.05Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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7.38Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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11.59University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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12.29Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.01William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 24.8% | 21.1% | 15.7% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 24.8% | 21.5% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.2% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sabrina Starck | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 19.5% | 27.4% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 4.9% |
| Lina Carper | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 13.2% | 19.4% | 30.0% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 16.4% | 13.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.