← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.37+2.38vs Predicted
-
2George Washington University1.22+4.19vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.32+0.46vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University1.29+2.17vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+1.49vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+0.55vs Predicted
-
7Washington College-0.80+4.96vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University0.10+1.76vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania1.41-3.28vs Predicted
-
10Columbia University0.45-1.28vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-3.80vs Predicted
-
12University of Virginia-0.55-0.26vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University-0.92-0.49vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.84vs Predicted
-
15William and Mary-0.40-4.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.38Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
-
6.19George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
-
3.46Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
-
6.17Old Dominion University1.290.1%1st Place
-
6.49U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
-
6.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
-
11.96Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
-
9.76Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
-
5.72University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
-
8.72Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
-
7.2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
-
11.74University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
-
12.51Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
-
9.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
-
10.99William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 23.4% | 21.7% | 15.8% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 23.1% | 18.1% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esther Ireland | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Sabrina Starck | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 20.1% | 24.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| Lina Carper | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 18.5% | 34.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 18.5% | 11.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.