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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.47vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.22+4.15vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.37+0.33vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+2.41vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+1.53vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.45+2.70vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.25vs Predicted
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8Princeton University-0.92+4.36vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.10+0.71vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.83vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.40+0.10vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.80+0.31vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.29-6.60vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-4.83vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia-0.55-3.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.47Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.15George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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3.33Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.53Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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8.7Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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5.75University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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12.36Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.71Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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11.1William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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12.31Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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6.4Old Dominion University1.290.1%1st Place
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9.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.43University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 22.7% | 21.7% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 24.6% | 18.0% | 18.6% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Sabrina Starck | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Adra Ivancich | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 19.4% | 31.9% |
| Lauren Murray | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 3.7% |
| Lina Carper | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 15.4% | 13.8% |
| Imogene Nuss | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 20.6% | 27.6% |
| Esther Ireland | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.