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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.41vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.22+4.23vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.45+5.62vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.32-0.49vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+1.46vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.41-0.22vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17-0.57vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.15vs Predicted
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9Washington College-0.80+3.17vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.29-3.77vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-3.85vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92+0.55vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.40-1.75vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia-0.55-2.54vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.10-5.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.41Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.23George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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8.62Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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3.51Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.46U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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5.78University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.1%1st Place
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9.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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12.17Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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6.23Old Dominion University1.290.1%1st Place
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7.15St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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12.55Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.25William and Mary-0.400.0%1st Place
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11.46University of Virginia-0.550.0%1st Place
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9.61Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 22.5% | 21.7% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.8% | 19.1% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sabrina Starck | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 19.0% | 26.5% |
| Esther Ireland | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 31.2% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 16.5% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| Gracie Goodwin | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 16.4% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.