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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University-0.08+7.20vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.36+0.60vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania0.49+3.64vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.23+3.46vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy0.70+1.26vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.44vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.63-2.99vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.82-4.38vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.20-0.43vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.63-3.52vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.62-4.49vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia-2.23+0.94vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-1.44-1.52vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-3.32+0.13vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-2.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.2Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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2.6Georgetown University2.360.3%1st Place
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6.64University of Pennsylvania0.490.0%1st Place
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7.46George Washington University0.230.0%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Naval Academy0.700.1%1st Place
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8.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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4.01Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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3.62Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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8.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.200.0%1st Place
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6.48Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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6.51St. Mary's College of Maryland0.620.0%1st Place
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12.94University of Virginia-2.230.0%1st Place
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11.48Princeton University-1.440.0%1st Place
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14.13William and Mary-3.320.0%1st Place
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12.65Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Robertson | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Emily Doble | 33.0% | 24.8% | 16.3% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esme Gonzalez | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Clary | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Josephine Sherry | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gilda Dondona | 18.7% | 18.6% | 17.1% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moira Padilla | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maisy Sperry | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Rathjen | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 10.6% | 23.9% | 32.7% | 18.1% |
| Ella Gonzalez | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 10.8% | 22.7% | 23.3% | 15.0% | 4.7% |
| Julia Larmee | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 10.1% | 18.5% | 61.5% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 23.8% | 29.6% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.